Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.413639 2.562356 2.724703 2.916965 3.141039 3.397408 3.718307
2025-04-20 2.192849 2.378490 2.591382 2.858672 3.193377 3.611326 4.196758
2025-04-27 2.167820 2.392300 2.660417 3.014636 3.488916 4.136189 5.167175
2025-05-04 2.053005 2.288135 2.575723 2.967626 3.515384 4.310129 5.707329
2025-05-11 1.998175 2.248437 2.561743 3.002276 3.646501 4.647531 6.637066
2025-05-18 1.898064 2.145365 2.458386 2.905231 3.573600 4.650120 6.945678
2025-05-25 1.848579 2.102620 2.429227 2.905760 3.642777 4.897623 7.910983
2025-06-01 1.794102 2.050330 2.383664 2.878285 3.663865 5.064644 8.819875
2025-06-08 1.747708 2.005793 2.345138 2.856524 3.689226 5.242736 9.938659
2025-06-15 1.721287 1.986198 2.339333 2.882382 3.796807 5.615554 12.312153
2025-06-22 1.658777 1.915582 2.258601 2.787681 3.683109 5.481983 12.337857
2025-06-29 1.624111 1.881313 2.227563 2.767951 3.701075 5.653350 14.324639
2025-07-06 1.584931 1.840699 2.187322 2.733786 3.694114 5.778551 16.660148
2025-07-13 1.568154 1.829971 2.189209 2.766455 3.815827 6.270128 26.149204
2025-07-20 1.566598 1.839736 2.220720 2.848943 4.046823 7.189297 232.589066
2025-07-27 1.542254 1.816708 2.202620 2.847220 4.106926 7.631017 NaN
2025-08-03 1.521126 1.797340 2.188889 2.851565 4.180302 8.173249 NaN
2025-08-10 1.482310 1.751811 2.134036 2.781467 4.081758 8.007683 NaN
2025-08-17 1.460343 1.729629 2.113771 2.770663 4.115244 8.410405 NaN
2025-08-24 1.437888 1.706103 2.090554 2.753201 4.131537 8.761149 NaN
2025-08-31 1.414848 1.681115 2.064199 2.728602 4.128348 9.029769 NaN
2025-09-07 1.405154 1.674948 2.066443 2.755277 4.250982 10.071569 NaN
2025-09-14 1.369213 1.630043 2.007252 2.667164 4.082836 9.357001 NaN